Department of Geosciences Fall 2021 Seminar Series
Friday, November 12th
12:30PM
Storrs Hall WW16
Identification of moisture sources to better understand and predict hydrologic extremes
Precipitation is derived from diverse moisture sources and various atmospheric pathways. Consequently, extremes in precipitation, including drought and heavy rainfall, can arise in many ways, making accurate prediction of these events challenging. To better understand the diverse ways in which precipitation extremes develop, we identify the geographic sources of moisture anomalies leading to these events. Online numerical water tracers within the Community Earth System Model are first used to identify the climatological evaporative sources (different terrestrial and oceanic regions) of precipitation for locations across North America. The tracers are then used to determine which regions contribute anomalously to each location’s drought and heavy precipitation events. For some regions, including large portions of the Western U.S., precipitation extremes are consistently linked to the same geographic source areas and atmospheric pathways, while in others, including along much of the Eastern U.S., extremes arise through distinctly different sources and mechanisms depending on the event. The atmospheric circulation patterns and surface characteristics that link remote regions will be presented, and the potential for enhancing extreme precipitation predictability based on the monitoring of teleconnected regions will be discussed.
For more information, contact: Christin Donnelly at christin.donnelly@uconn.edu