Department of Earth Sciences Fall 2022 Seminar Series
Dr. Kevin Reed, Stony Brook University - https://www.stonybrook.edu/experts/profile/kevin-reed
Friday October 21st
12:30PM
Storrs Hall WW16
Quantifying past and future climate change impacts on hurricanes
The next century will see unprecedented changes to the climate system with direct consequences for society. The next century will see unprecedented changes to the climate system with direct consequences for society. Improving our knowledge of our weather and how it changes over time is crucial to understanding regional impacts of climate change. As stated in the National Climate Assessment, “changes in extreme weather events are the primary way that most people experience climate change.” In this sense, the characteristics of extreme weather are key indicators of climate change impacts, at both local and regional scales. Understanding potential changes in the location, intensity and structure of such extremes (e.g., hurricanes) is crucial in planning for future adaptation as these events have large economic and social costs. The goal of this work is to better understand climate impacts on hurricanes in various high-resolution configurations of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) run at horizontal grid spacings of approximately 28 km and forced with prescribed sea-surface temperatures and greenhouse gas concentrations for past, present, and future climates. This analysis will include the evaluation of conventional decadal simulations typical of climate models, short 7-day ensemble hindcasts of recent devastating events, and reduced complexity simulations of idealized states of the climate system. Through this hierarchical modeling approach the impact of climate change on the characteristics (frequency, intensity, rainfall, etc.) of hurricanes can be quantified.
For more information, contact: Christin Donnelly at christin.donnelly@uconn.edu