STATISTICS COLLOQUIUM
Patrick J. Cantwell, Ph.D.
Division Chief of the Decennial Statistical Studies Division, U.S. Census Bureau
Recipient of the 2019 UConn Statistics Department
Distinguished Alumna/Alumnus Award
Statistical Methods at the U.S. Census Bureau: From Simple Statistical
Theory to Complex Practical Application
Abstract
The U.S. Census Bureau has employed dozens of statistics graduates from the University of Connecticut over the years. At the Bureau, staff develop complex theoretical models and implement them in the course of our work on surveys and censuses. However, we often begin with simple ideas and find interesting--sometimes complex--applications to solve problems. In this presentation, we address three questions. For each, we briefly describe a statistical application based on simple statistical concepts.
The questions: (1) In a time when data intruders have access to sophisticated software and huge databases of personal information, how can we ensure the confidentiality of individuals' responses to the census and our surveys? The randomized response method suggests ways to guarantee confidentiality in the presence of any external threats. (2) Can we measure how well the U.S. decennial census "covers" the population of the United States? A statistical procedure developed in the 19th Century provides the starting point and became the topic of a controversial Supreme Court case. (3) How can we design a survey that produces high quality estimates of the current unemployment rate as well as the change in the rate from the previous month? Practical considerations and basic concepts of statistical covariance provide guidance on effective survey designs and estimation procedures to precisely measure the unemployment rate, a major indicator and driver of the stock market.
DATE: Wednesday, September 18, 2019
TIME: 4:00 pm
PLACE: Gentry Bldg, Rm. 131
Coffee will be served 3:15-3:45 in the Noether Lounge (AUST 326)
Dr. Cantwell is chief of the Decennial Statistical Studies Division at the U.S. Census Bureau. He and his staff are responsible for developing and implementing statistical procedures used in the decennial census, its coverage survey, the American Community Survey, and geographic programs related to the Master Address File. At the Bureau, he has developed and implemented statistical methods in various areas, including household surveys, business surveys, and decennial census programs.
Pat received an A.B. in mathematics from Harvard University, and an M.S. and Ph.D. in statistics from the University of Connecticut. He has been a member of the American Statistical Association for almost 45 years, and the editorial boards of the Journal of Official Statistics for 25 years, and Survey Methodology for 15 years. He is also an ASA fellow elected in 2013.
For more information, contact: Tracy Burke at tracy.burke@uconn.edu